Wanhua Chemical (600309): It is worth looking forward to gradually expanding the future development of the chemical industry
Investment Highlights: Event: The company released its 2018 annual report, which reported a real revenue of 606.
21 trillion, ten years +14.
11%, net profit attributable to mother 106.
1 billion, at least -4.
71%, net profit after deduction is 100.
3.5 billion, at least -6.
31%, which is no different from the results of the Air Force Performance Express, which is in line with expectations; of which, Q4 achieved 146.
9.8 billion, previously +3.
38%, net profit attributable to mother 15.
8.9 billion, after deducting non-return to net profit of mother 15.
According to a special compilation of financial statements, after absorbing and merging Wanhua Chemical, the revenue for the reporting period was 728.
37 trillion, ten years +12.
33%, net profit attributable to mother 155.
660,000 yuan, at least -1.
36%; the company’s 2019 sales plan to achieve revenue of 73 billion US dollars, the merger caliber has been flat.
The company announced its profit distribution plan for 2018, with a dividend of 20 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares, for a total of 62.
79 trillion, corresponding to a dividend rate of 59% (if simulated merger is 40%), the dividend rate is 4.
Polyether polyols, petrochemicals and new materials business continued to grow.
Polyurethane series, revenue 309.
500 million, an annual increase of 3.
8%, revenue accounted for 51%, annual reduction of 5 percentage points, gross profit margin of 50.
3%, a decrease of 5 per year.
1 piece, Ningbo MDI output = 120 * 77.
69% = 93.
23 inches, MDI output in Yantai = 60 * 87.
15% = 52.
29 nominal, totaling 145.
5 earliest, down 9 before 2017.
5 lowest, lowest -6.
1%; the output of polyurethane series plate is 187.
4 nominal, sales 188.
7, its output increased by 8, indicating that the output contribution of polyols, combined polyethers, etc. increased by about 9.
5 + 8 = 17.
5 announcement; revenue of petrochemical products 189.
1 billion, an annual increase of 23.
5%, revenue accounted for 31%, increased by 2 every year.
4pcts, gross profit margin is 10%, and is reduced by 2 every year.
5pcts; Petrochemical series sales volume 387 inserts, exceeding the maximum increase of 55, an increase of 16.
7% is the starting point for the revenue growth of the segment, but the rising prices of raw materials LPG have led to the decline in the gross profit margin of petrochemical products; the revenue of fine chemicals and new materials increased 57%, accounting for 9% of revenue.
4%, an increase of 1 per year.
5pcts, gross margin 31.
3% was basically flat; sales of fine chemicals and new materials were 32.
2 Initially, increase by 8 every year.
3 cathodes, an increase of 34.
7% matching revenue growth.
It is estimated that the consolidated net profit of the fourth quarter is about 2.5 billion, which is probably the bottom of the single quarter performance.
BC’s 2018 net profit attributable to mother 34.
900 million (performance commitment 30.
0 billion), total performance commitment assets (100% of BC, 100% of BC Chenfeng, Wanhua Ningbo 25.
5%, Wanhua Chlor-Alkali Thermoelectricity 8%) achieved 49 in 2018.
600 million, more than promised 6.
Simulated absorption of combined data: The restructuring report revealed that BC Company achieved a net profit of 2.6 billion in the first half of 2018, so it achieved a net profit of 9 billion in the second half of the year. BC’s previous revenue was approximately 728-606 = 12.2 billion.Billion, the revenue in the second half of the year is about 4.1 billion. BC will overhaul in the third quarter of each year. The overhaul in 2018 ends at the end of September, and the income side is almost a quarter less. Therefore, BC’s 2018 third quarter profit contribution is small, thenThe net profit in the fourth quarter alone is assumed to account for 75% of the profit in the second half of the year, which is 6.
800 million; Ningbo Wanhua 2018 preliminary net profit 63.
500 million, profit and loss of minority shareholders is about 63.
5 * 25.
5% = 16.
200 million, so the profits and losses of minority shareholders other than Ningbo Wanhua is about 22.
2 = 60,000 yuan, assuming about 1 in the fourth quarter.
5 trillion, the fourth quarter of Ningbo Wanhua minority shareholders profit and loss of about 3.
5 = 2.
3 trillion, Ningbo Wanhua single-quarter net profit is estimated to be = 2.
5% = 9.
1 ppm, net profit in the third quarter alone is approximately 63.
2 = 16.
2 ppm, which basically matches the quarterly movement of the MDI price spread.
In summary, Wanhua’s single-quarter net profit of the simulated consolidated caliber is about 15.
9 + 6.
9 + 2.
3 = 250 thousand yuan.
Although the average product price in the first quarter of this year has not improved significantly compared with the fourth quarter of last year, considering that Ningbo 11?
The overhaul in December caused contingent losses. TDI and PMMA units started to contribute to the increase early this year. In the first quarter of 2019, aggregate MDI prices bottomed out, and oligopoly companies controlled the volume to insure. It is expected that subsequent consolidated caliber single-quarter results will follow the fourth quarter of last year.Very small.
Continuous capital expenditure, petrochemical and new materials businesses support long-term development.
The report totals company capital expenditures of 102.
7.9 billion, up from + 72%; the company’s projects under construction at the end of the reporting period were 99.
03 billion, previously + 54%.
Polyurethane sector: The company’s 30-ton TDI project was put into operation at the end of 2018, and the U.S. 40-ton MDI integration project is expected to start production by the end of 2021. It plans to add 50 tons of new capacity in Yantai Industrial Park and 30 tons of new capacity in Ningbo Industrial Park;PC Phase I 7 plug-in device was put into production in early 2018, and Phase II 13 was under construction. It is expected to start production at the end of 2019. 5 to MMA and 8 to PMMA projects were successfully started in January 2019 and produced qualified products. Comprehensive product indicatorsIt has reached the level of mainstream products in Europe and Japan; petrochemical sector: vigorously develop C2 derivatives, and the million-ton ethylene industry chain project is expected to be completed by the end of 2020.
The oligopoly pattern supports MDI’s long-term economic prosperity.
Since the beginning of the year, the price of polymerized MDI has gradually increased by more than 50% to 17,650 yuan / ton, and pure MDI has gradually increased by more than 10% to 24,000 yuan / ton.
Global demand is expected to remain 5 in the future?
6% demand growth, corresponding to an annual increase of 30?
In 40 seconds, domestic automobile production is expected to change, real estate construction is expected to pick up, and demand for air-conditioning and household appliances is expected after the real estate cycle. On the supply side, 佛山夜网论坛 Covestro will expand its 20-inch building materials in Germany by mid-2020.In the short term, follow-up inspections are supplemented (Basf and Huntsman’s rectification units are expected to start overhauling for 20 days in mid-to-late May, and Lianheng is expected to start overhauls at the end of April and mid-to-late May, respectively.Maintenance will begin in this month, and Tosoh and Kumho also have maintenance plans in May), and the MDI boom is expected to continue.
Earnings forecast and estimation: The company’s net profit attributable to its parent in 2019-2021 is estimated to be 127.12 / 152 / 17.8 billion, with the highest historical dividend ratio in 2018 and the highest dividend ratio since 2014. The first coverage is given a “strong recommendation” rating.
Risk Warning: The price of MDI fluctuates greatly, and the progress of new projects is less than expected.