Changchun High-tech (000661) Tracking of the First Quarterly Report: Performance Continues to Be Beautiful and Growth Hormone Maintains High-speed Growth

Changchun High-tech (000661) Tracking of the First Quarterly Report: Performance Continues to Be Beautiful and Growth Hormone Maintains High-speed Growth
1.Event: The company released the 2019 first quarter report.1Q1 achieved revenue of 17.75 ppm, a 72-year increase of 72.07%; realize net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.650,000 yuan, an increase of 73 in ten years.67%; net profit deducted from non-attributed mothers3.580,000 yuan, an increase of 96 in ten years.93%; realized earnings per share 2.15 yuan. In terms of financial indicators, selling expenses6.20 ppm, an increase of 45 in ten years.77%; management costs 8115.530,000 yuan, an annual increase of 23.58%; R & D expenses1.150,000 yuan, an increase of 36 in ten years.98%; financial expenses -800.950,000 yuan, a decrease of 424 a year.24%; net operating cash flow 6.180,000 yuan, an increase of 398 in ten years.31%; accounts payable 3.24 ppm, an increase of 73 in ten years.63%, mainly due to the increase in settlements temporarily estimated by real estate companies. 2.Our analysis and judgment: (1) Growth hormone drives the pharmaceutical business to maintain rapid growth, real estate business settlement increases and thickens performance. The company’s performance is beautiful, mainly due to the rapid growth of the pharmaceutical business and the actual business settlement.Rapid growth of pharmaceutical business19 The company achieved operating income in the first quarter.750,000 yuan, +72 a year.07%; net profit attributable to mother 3.65 ppm, +73 for ten years.67%; deduct non-attributed net profit 3.58 trillion, ten years +96.93%.The acceleration of the company’s reported performance is mainly due to two reasons: (1) Growth hormone drives the pharmaceutical business to continue its high growth trend.Reported intermediate pharmaceutical business income +44.16%, net profit +62.15%.We believe that it is mainly driven by growth hormone, and terminal data show that the growth rate of growth hormone sales in the first two months has exceeded 60%.(2) Real estate business settlement income increases every year. As for the issue of vaccine batches, the batch of 19Q1 varicella vaccines was issued24.270,000 bottles, a reduction of 75 per year.5%; rabies vaccine batch issued 51.360,000 bottles, a reduction of 63 a year.1%. Expenditure is well controlled.From the perspective of expenses, the sales expense ratio was 34 in 19Q1.95%, a decrease of 6 per year.31pp; management expense ratio 4.57%, a decrease of 1 per year.79pp.We believe that the decline in the expense ratio during the period is related to the replacement transition of the actual business settlement. (2) Continue to be optimistic about the growth hormone to maintain rapid growth The company’s multiple advantages in the domestic growth hormone market, we are optimistic about its future high-speed growth.As a domestic growth hormone leader, Kinsey has the comprehensive advantages of the most complete dosage forms, the strongest terminal control ability, and the development of new indications.We are optimistic about the company’s growth hormone business to maintain rapid growth: (1) The domestic growth hormone penetration rate has decreased, and the market has room for expansion.There are about 7 million children with dwarf who are currently in the treatment window period, of which more than 2.8 million are children with growth hormone deficiency (GHD). Assuming a national market size of $ 4.5 billion in 2018, even considering the difference in urban and rural consumption capacity, the GHD treatment rate is onlyAbout 10%.If only GHD indications are considered, and long-acting dosage forms are not considered for the time being, it is assumed that in the future urban and rural penetration rates will reach 20% and 10%, respectively, and the use ratio of water injection and powder injection will reach 4: 6 and 1: 9 respectively, then conservative estimatesThe market size for growth hormone therapy for GHD is above 110 ppm. (2) The phase IV clinical study of the long-acting dosage form has been completed, which is expected to continue to contribute to the performance flexibility and further strengthen the company’s growth hormone hegemony skeleton.During the reporting period, the company’s long-acting growth hormone has completed phase IV clinical research, which will gradually build the foundation for the subsequent academic promotion of products and enter the European and American markets, and continue to continuously contribute to performance flexibility. (3) The sales team continues to expand, the sales channels continue to sink, and the market coverage is expanded.By the end of 18, the company’s sales team was about 1,400 people. In the future, it will continue to expand the sales team and continue to expand the market coverage, thereby increasing the number of hospitals and prescribing physicians, and the number of new patients. (4) In the short term, it is absolutely difficult to seize the market share of Kinsey water needles.As the domestic market has huge room for expansion, each company is expected to grow together.Even considering the competitive factors, Anke’s water needle reached 19 years old, and was approved in the first half of the year. Novo Nordisk water needle has been approved for listing, but at the same time, it also faces problems such as bidding and hanging the net, and there are product conversion costs in the place of doctors. (5) Growth hormone is mostly prescribed outside the hospital and is not affected by the proportion of drugs.The sales model of Kingsey growth hormone is usually that after the patient confirms the use of growth hormone in the first visit of a tertiary hospital, it is subsequently transferred to a children’s hospital or a clinic next to the hospital with a prescription, which is not affected by the hospital’s strict control of the proportion of drugs. (6) The child height management market is heating up.Parents have a high degree of recognition of children’s height, and the child height management market continues to heat up. (III) Continue to be optimistic about the development prospects of vaccine business. We are optimistic about the company’s vaccine business development prospects. Enlarging existing products will help maintain rapid growth, and gradually develop a rich pipeline of pipeline products. It is also expected to continue to contribute to performance flexibility: (1) Rabies vaccine is expected toContribution to performance increase.The 18-month effective rabies vaccine process has been significantly improved and scaled up. Considering the impact of previous vaccine incidents, it is expected that Maifeng’s mad vaccine market will accelerate its recovery and contribute to performance flexibility. (2) Chicken pox vaccine continues to expand into the international market and is expected to accelerate its volume in the future.The company has completed registration of chickenpox vaccine in India and Nigeria, and is about to complete registration in Indonesia.At the same time, registration work is underway in Guatemala, Bangladesh, Turkey, Thailand and other countries.The product will also benefit from the vaccine incident, and is expected to achieve further volume through continued development of the international market. (3) The nasal spray influenza vaccine has been reported to be produced and will be replaced with a priority review in June 18th. If it is successfully marketed, the alternative route to nasal spray will be left blank. (4) The research and development of mad seed freeze-dried powder needles has progressed in an orderly manner and is in the state of planned recruitment.At the same time, a sufficient amount of products for phase III clinical trials have been prepared, and the drug inspection report of the Chinese Academy of Sciences has been obtained in advance. (5) Invest in Ruizhou 武汉夜网论坛 Biological, 20-valent pneumococcal vaccine is expected to enter the clinic in 19; (6) Purchase of full-human anti-rabies monoclonal antibody technology. If it is successfully marketed, it will form synergy with the company’s existing rabies vaccine. 3.Investment suggestion The company’s first quarter report has a very good performance. The growth of growth hormones in the main strata drives the pharmaceutical business to maintain rapid growth; and it will fulfill its business earnestly.We continue to be optimistic about the company’s development prospects.The company is a domestic leader in biopharmaceuticals. We believe that growth hormone performance will maintain rapid growth: through consumption upgrades and people’s understanding of height management, the growth hormone market has a broad future growth space.The company 深圳丝袜会所 has the most complete product line in the field of growth hormone, the strongest terminal control ability, the speed of new indication development, the leading technology and the active deployment of new alternative technologies.In terms of dosage form, powder injection strengthens and consolidates competitive advantages; rapid development of new indications for water injection promotes continuous heavy volume; long-acting dosage forms are exclusive dosage forms; intravenous clinical completion and sales channel expansion will significantly increase performance.Regenerative human follicle stimulating hormone replaces domestic blanks and promotes the process of import substitution after approval of supplementary indications.The vaccine business is about to enter a new stage of development: chickenpox vaccine is opening up the international market, and rabies vaccine will turn a profit through process modification and dosage form upgrade.Huakang Pharmaceutical is committed to maintaining stable growth.The company’s real estate business will also maintain steady growth.Regarding the impact of the acquisition of the remaining equity of Jinsai Pharmaceutical for the time being, it is expected that the net profit attributable to the mother for 2019-2021 will be 13.49/17.88/23.05 ppm and EPS were 7.93/10.51/13.55 yuan, corresponding PE is 39/29/23 times. 4.Risks suggest that the market for long-acting growth hormone is less than expected, the market for recombinant human follicle stimulating hormone is less than expected, vaccine safety risks and policy risks, and new drug development is less than expected.